We need a SETI Institute for detecting AGI
Briefing Doc: Can SETI help detect Artificial General Intelligence?
This briefing doc reviews popular press articles and blog posts concerning the use of SETI techniques to detect Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). But first, what is AGI? And once defined, how to detect it? And, ultimately how to deal with it if one day it happens?
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Main Themes
Defining and Measuring AGI: There is no consensus on the definition of AGI, making it difficult to identify and measure. This poses a challenge in determining when AGI might be achieved and how to assess its capabilities.
Potential Risks of AGI: AGI presents potential risks to humanity, ranging from economic disruption and biased algorithms to existential threats from uncontrolled superintelligence.
AGI Detection and Control: Drawing parallels between AGI research and the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) can provide insights into detecting and controlling AGI.
Forecasting AGI Arrival: Predictions about the arrival of AGI vary significantly, depending on the methods used and expert opinions.
Important Ideas & Facts
1. Defining AGI:
Challenge of Definition: AGI lacks a clear, universally accepted definition mainly because “intelligence” and “general” are ambiguous.
"One of the first missions of a 'SETI for AGI' construct must be to clearly define the terms 'general' and 'intelligence' so the research community can speak about them concretely and consistently." (What Can AI Researchers Learn From Alien Hunters)
Consciousness Debate: Whether AGI requires consciousness, personhood, and self-awareness remains an open question.
"Although it’s generally thought that consciousness isn’t necessary for intelligence, it’s often intertwined with discussions of AGI because creating a self-aware machine would have many philosophical, societal, and legal implications." (What Can AI Researchers Learn From Alien Hunters)
Proposed Tests: Various tests have been proposed to assess AGI, such as:
Turing Test: Focuses on language generation and imitation but may not be sufficient to measure true intelligence.
Wozniak's Hot Drink Test: Emphasizes interaction with the physical world and completion of varied tasks.
Nilsson's Employment Test: Assesses an algorithm's ability to perform various human professions.
Goertzel's College Student Test: Evaluates an AI's ability to learn from its environment and make choices to achieve a goal.
3. AGI Detection and Control:
SETI for AGI: Applying SETI principles to AGI research can help define and identify signs of AGI emergence.
Verification and Measurement: Rigorous verification and measurement are crucial to confirm AGI detection.
"In the case of SETI, if a candidate narrow-band signal is detected, an expert group will verify that it is indeed an extraterrestrial source." (What Can AI Researchers Learn From Alien Hunters)
4. Forecasting AGI Arrival:
Expert Opinions: Predictions about AGI's arrival vary, with some experts anticipating sooner-than-expected timelines and others skeptical of its feasibility.
Keep in mind…
The challenges and implications of detecting and defining AGI, draw parallels with SETI's approach.
Let’s highlight several aspects of SETI's methodology that could be valuable when applied to AGI research, suggesting potential benefits:
● Rigorous Definition and Detection: SETI's emphasis on establishing clear definitions and criteria for extraterrestrial intelligence signals can be applied to AGI. Developing a standardized definition of AGI, encompassing aspects like "general" and "intelligence," would provide a concrete framework for research and evaluation.
● Interdisciplinary Collaboration: SETI involves collaboration among diverse fields such as physics, astronomy, and signal processing. Similarly, a SETI-like approach for AGI would require expertise from computer science, neuroscience, psychology, and philosophy, fostering a more comprehensive understanding of AGI.
● Standardized Measurement and Evaluation: SETI employs established protocols and criteria for validating potential signals, ensuring consistency and minimizing bias. Applying a similar approach to AGI would involve designing and implementing standardized tests and evaluations to assess different dimensions of intelligence, enabling objective measurement and tracking of progress.
● Transparency and Cooperation: SETI's post-detection protocols prioritize transparency, international cooperation, and engagement with organizations like the United Nations. Adapting these principles for AGI would promote open communication, facilitate collaboration, and ensure responsible handling of AGI's societal and ethical implications.
Conclusion
By adopting these aspects of SETI's approach, AGI research could benefit from increased rigor, a broader perspective, and a more structured framework for addressing the challenges and potential risks associated with AGI development.
